Spatiotemporal traffic forecasting: review and proposed directions

This paper systematically reviews studies that forecast short-term traffic conditions using spatial dependence between links. We extract and synthesise 130 research papers, considering two perspectives: (1) methodological framework and (2) methods for capturing spatial information. Spatial information boosts the accuracy of prediction, particularly in congested traffic regimes and for longer horizons. Machine learning methods, which have attracted more attention in recent years, outperform the naïve statistical methods such as historical average and exponential smoothing. However, there is no guarantee of superiority when machine learning methods are compared with advanced statistical methods such as spatiotemporal autoregressive integrated moving average. As for the spatial dependency detection, a large gulf exists between the realistic spatial dependence of traffic links on a real network and the studied networks as follows: (1) studies capture spatial dependency of either adjacent or distant upstream and downstream links with the study link, (2) the spatially relevant links are selected either by prejudgment or by correlation-coefficient analysis, and (3) studies develop forecasting methods in a corridor test sample, where all links are connected sequentially together, assume a similarity between the behaviour of both parallel and adjacent links, and overlook the competitive nature of traffic links.     

路侧公交专用车道模式下右转交织长度建模

在设置路侧公交专用道的交叉口处,可通过划定交织区的方式允许右转车辆借用一定长度的公交专用道通行.合理规划公交车与右转车的交织区长度有利于提高借道右转的通行效率,减少在交织区前的排队车辆数从而降低道路混乱程度,保障公交车的专用路权.本文分析了公交站点影响下的公交车车头时距分布,建立了右转车穿越交织区长度计算模型,并结合实际调查数据进行了算例分析和模型验证.研究成果可为公交优先条件下的交叉口空间优化设计提供理论参考.     

Development and calibration of a long-distance passenger traffic assignment model

This paper studies the assignment of long-distance passenger traffic on a highway corridor network. First, we propose a traditional model for the long-distance traffic assignment considering interactions with local commuter traffic. It addresses the effect of local networks on highway corridors. An iterative algorithm is developed to solve for the exact solution. Then, to address the potential computational issues that arise therein, a decomposition method is proposed by introducing a new concept of corridor elasticity. An assignment procedure for long-distance passenger traffic is developed accordingly. Numerical tests show that the proposed decomposition method makes significant improvements in computational performance at a small loss of optimality. This decomposition method well approximates the exact assignment from the traditional formulation, especially when the highway corridors are near-saturation. The proposed decomposition method appears practical for application.     

景观道路的设计实践——广阳岛环岛路设计

广阳岛环岛路的主要功能是服务性景观路,跟环岛滨江公园一起,共同构筑广阳岛的滨江景观带。尝试引进了国外的宁静化设计,尽可能推行最生态的工程做法,努力创造人与自然相和谐的环境,并竭尽全力地将这些构想付诸实施。为了实现以上目标,道路、交通、排水、结构、桥梁和电照专业,在景观专业的组织下,共同展开了这条景观路的设计尝试。     

Tradable network permits: A new scheme for the most efficient use of network capacity

Akamatsu et al. (2006) proposed a new transportation demand management scheme called “tradable bottleneck permits” (TBP), and proved its efficiency properties for a single bottleneck model. This paper explores the properties of a TBP system for general networks. An equilibrium model is first constructed to describe the states under the TBP system with a single OD pair. It is proved that equilibrium resource allocation is efficient in the sense that the total transportation cost in a network is minimized. It is also shown that the “self-financing principle” holds for the TBP system. Furthermore, theoretical relationships between TBP and congestion pricing (CP) are discussed. It is demonstrated that TBP has definite advantages over CP when demand information is not perfect, whereas both TBP and CP are equivalent for the perfect information case. Finally, it is shown that the efficiency result also holds for more general demand conditions.     

基于多旅行商问题的应急设施服务区划分模型

基于多旅行商问题，增设集散中心需求及应急服务设施资源容量约束条件，以最小化遍历区域内全部集散中心的综合旅行时间成本为优化目标，构建一种应急设施服务区划分模型，确定各应急设施的服务区范围.设计一种复合算法求解模型，首先基于P-中值选址模型的优化理念，形成初始方案；继而加入禁忌搜索算法，结合LKH求解器对模型进行迭代优化求得最优解.基于宁波市北仑区实际拓扑网络进行案例分析，验证了模型和求解方法的有效性.     

近郊小城市交通发展策略研究——以成都市新繁镇为例

城市发展有它内在的规律性,中小城市特别是近郊小城市交通发展不能照搬大城市经验,应找到一条实事求是的自身发展路径。在新型城镇化和经济发展新常态对城镇化质量提出新要求的背景下,以成都市近郊小城市新繁镇为例,从机动化水平、交通模式、道路网络与交通管理等方面系统梳理近郊中小城市交通现状特征和发展面临的问题,分析交通需求的变化趋势,建立近郊小城市交通组织的分析框架,在此基础上,提出未来交通发展的重要策略。     

A generic data assimilation framework for vehicle trajectory reconstruction on signalized urban arterials using particle filters

With trajectory data, a complete microscopic and macroscopic picture of traffic flow operations can be obtained. However, trajectory data are difficult to observe over large spatiotemporal regions—particularly in urban contexts—due to practical, technical and financial constraints. The next best thing is to estimate plausible trajectories from whatever data are available. This paper presents a generic data assimilation framework to reconstruct such plausible trajectories on signalized urban arterials using microscopic traffic flow models and data from loops (individual vehicle passages and thus vehicle counts); traffic control data; and (sparse) travel time measurements from whatever source available. The key problem we address is that loops suffer from miss- and over-counts, which result in unbounded errors in vehicle accumulations, rendering trajectory reconstruction highly problematic. Our framework solves this problem in two ways. First, we correct the systematic error in vehicle accumulation by fusing the counts with sparsely available travel times. Second, the proposed framework uses particle filtering and an innovative hierarchical resampling scheme, which effectively integrates over the remaining error distribution, resulting in plausible trajectories. The proposed data assimilation framework is tested and validated using simulated data. Experiments and an extensive sensitivity analysis show that the proposed method is robust to errors both in the model and in the measurements, and provides good estimations for vehicle accumulation and vehicle trajectories with moderate sensor quality. The framework does not impose restrictions on the type of microscopic models used and can be naturally extended to include and estimate additional trajectory attributes such as destination and path, given data are available for assimilation.     

北京市旅游交通方式选择行为研究

为防止北京市旅游高峰期间景区周边交通混乱以及城市交通路网负荷增加，选取北京市三 处景点进行问卷调查，将游客的年龄、是否有车、月收入、同行人数及同伴类型等数据作为影响游客交通方式选择的因素。与此同时，对所需数据进行有效性检验，进而分析不同游客的出行方 式特性，利用非集计模型对游客的交通方式选择行为进行研究。结果显示：游客的年龄、是否有车、月收入、同行人数以及同伴类型这几类因素对游客的交通方式选择的影响均显著，并得到游 客对私家车、出租车、地铁及公交车这四类交通方式选择的比例，分别为17%, 7%, 54%, 22%。研究表明，北京市旅游交通方式的需求以公共交通为主，尤其是对轨道交通的需求，为此建议进 一步加大北京市旅游公共交通系统建设，提高旅游交通的服务质量。